For what seems like forever, we've been hearing the Linux fanboys of the world proclaiming that the coming year will be the "Year of the Linux Desktop." It's has become somewhat of a joke amongst Linux naysayers and even with the Linux faithful. I don't know if we'll ever see the year of the Linux Desktop or not, but it looks like 2011 is going to be the year of the Linux Tablet. The future success of Linux as a tablet and phone platform might not look as open and utopian as many supporters of free software would like, but it seems that it's inevitable none the less.

So what makes 2011 and the tablet revolution different from the desktop and netbook revolutions before it? The desktop revolution was once lead by Apple and Microsoft. Microsoft won that battle and is still king, and it's probably not going anywhere too fast (no matter how hard the Linux fanboys try). Netbooks started out in the Linux camp (the original Eee PC came exclusively with Linux pre-installed) but Microsoft saw the writing on the walls and quickly released an optimized version of Windows XP for this new hardware type. The first year of the tablet revolution has been completely different, dominated by Apple's iPad. Now that every other hardware manufacture on the planet wants to get in on the tablet game, what are their choices?

Hardware Choices

The hardware choices for desktops and netbooks have traditionally been Intel based. This is where Microsoft has built its empire and where it's difficult to compete with them. It was simple for them to keep Linux (and even Apple) out of the desktop market for more than a decade. When netbooks came along, running essentially the same hardware, they smashed the competition with their aging Windows XP operating system.

The current incarnation of the tablet PC idea has grown out of the smartphone market, where the hardware is not dominated by Intel. Apple got a jump start on both the consumer smartphone market and tablet market with their iPhones and iPads. These devices run on ARM based processors, not traditional Intel processors. Intel is still (possibly years) behind when it comes to processors for smartphones and tablets. The simple fact is, if you're going to make an affordable and popular consumer tablet, it's going to be ARM based. And what operating systems run on ARM?

Software Choices

The current software choices for ARM based tablets are very limited. Apple has iOS and pretty much every other choice is Linux based. It's pretty unlikely that Apple would ever license iOS to the competition. This means that the only iOS tablet devices will be iPads. Microsoft's announced that they'll be porting Windows to ARM in the future. How long this will take is difficult to say, but it's pretty clear that they've missed the tablet revolution (which Bill Gates ironically tried to jump start for many years). So what choices do other manufacturers have?

Android

To date, the most popular choice for hardware makers has been the Linux based Android operating system from Google. Nearly every iPad competitor currently on the market is Android based (despite Google's warning to not use Android on tablets until version 3.0). Pretty much every major hardware shop has announced an upcoming Android tablet, and even companies we forgot about, like Viewsonic, have come out with their own Android based tablets. Samsung was the first major company out of the gate with an Android tablet, the Galaxy Tab, and they've already sold over a million units in just a few months. There is no doubt that 2011 is going to be a year full of Android tablets. Linux wins here!

WebOS

HP purchased Palm last year in order to obtain WebOS, Palm's Linux based smartphone OS. HP is set to announce their WebOS plans in February, and you can bet that they will include WebOS based tablets. Giant hardware maker HP + WebOS = a big win for Linux and consumers in 2011.

MeeGo

Two of the most notable hardware companies not in the Android camp are Nokia and Intel. Intel wants to sell more x86 based processors and Nokia seems to just want to be different. Last year, the two companies merged Nokia's long-time (and cult favorite) Meamo tablet OS with Intel's netbook oriented Moblin OS to create the MeeGo project. MeeGo takes a more open source approach than Android, merging existing Linux software with a touch-focused interface that is blazingly fast on Intel hardware. MeeGo is destined to be a favorite among the hard-core Linux fans, but Nokia and Intel seem to be dropping the ball when it comes to getting products to market. MeeGo might be a huge success or end up as just another niche market for Nokia. Either way, Linux wins!

Ubuntu

The darling of desktop Linux users, Ubuntu, looks like it's making some moves towards capturing at least part of the tablet market. The ARM version of Ubuntu has been in development and available to manufacturers for quite some time. We've even seen the first signs of Ubuntu tablets peeking their heads up around the internet. But with the release of Ubuntu 11.04's Unity interface, Ubuntu will shine even more on touch devices. While I highly doubt that Ubuntu will take a huge share of the tablet market, it might be a good alternative for power users looking for a full-blown desktop OS on their tablets. Ubuntu on tablets means more Linux in people's hands and again, Linux wins!

Will it really be "The Year of the Linux Tablet"

Linux based OSes have the clear advantage when it comes to competing for market share against the iPad. If Microsoft had its act together and if Apple was the type of company to license operating systems, I might not have much hope for Linux's success. But looking at the current market demand for tablets and the lack of a solid OS from Microsoft, I think this will truly be the year of the Linux Tablet.